I caught an article over a SeekingAlpha quoting the Financial Times in highlighting that perhaps the ETF market has become saturated.  I’ve been saying for some time that the new issues coming out seemingly weekly are becoming more inane and bizarre by the issue.  Much seems to be more about marketing and getting a trendy niche in your name than actually representing a true underlying sector (Social Media ETF? Nano ETF?  Please).  Also, using catchy ticker symbols to compete with similarly structured ETFs that may have lower fees isn’t doing investors any good (TAN, MOO, etc.).  Investors need to do their research and understand how well a “themed” ETF actually represents the sector they may assume it does based on a carefully selected name.  Curious on your thoughts on the state of ETFs for 2012.

With that off my chest, here’s a shoutout to some great blogs that hosted my content during the past few weeks.  Check out these carnivals for tons of investing articles from around the blogosphere:

Self-Directed Investing Carnival

Carnival of Passive Investing

Carnival of Wealth

Carnival of Financial Comraderie

Totally Money Carnival

 

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I came across an interesting article on SeekingAlpha where the author suggests a strategy for exploiting the high yields of the Dogs of the Dow (I recently wrote on the 2012 Dogs of the Dow) mixed with selling long-dated options (LEAPS) on those positions. Using Dow stocks also tends to minimize the risk of outright collapse in a stock as well, as they tend to be a bit more stable than smaller, less recognized companies. While it’s a lot to manage all those positions and options contracts, the beauty of selling covered call options is that you’re capturing the premium as it drops off over time since most options expire worthless. And if the stock runs and the shares get called, you had the gain on the underlying stock AND the premium on the option.

The author used a methodology whereby he sold LEAPS out in 2013 and stated what the returns would be should shares remain FLAT or HIT THE STRIKE PRICE during that time. The returns look good, especially considering the low interest rate environment we’re in and the volatility stocks will likely face in the future. But there’s the rub. His analysis considers what happens if all shares are FLAT or MOVE UP, but not what happens if shares decline. When I model out such scenarios, I like to set up a spreadsheet and model the full range of prices both up and down. While the option premium and dividends can certainly blunt downward moves in share prices, you can still end up with a sizable loss, especially across such a long time horizon.

Interested in Your Thoughts – Would You Try This Strategy?

Have You Ever Sold Covered Calls?

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With 2011 wrapping up, we saw US indices close roughly flat on the year (slight gain on the Dow and a huge move for the Dogs of the Dow especially, at 17%), but global markets swooned, especially those in the developing world and Europe.  It shouldn’t come as a major surprise then, that the major story for 2011 in ETFs was that of the Treasury ETF.  While a great strategy historically has been to short Treasuries with out of the money calls, even that strategy failed on certain occasions when the underlying ETFs moved too quickly and positions had to be covered.  Other trends and stories will be evident below in the Top 10 for each class – both leveraged and non-leveraged ETFs.  I wanted to include non-leveraged since it gives a more true picture of the actual top performing sectors, as not all sectors have a 3X leverage equivalent and most leveraged ETFs go to zero eventually, further distorting real gains from the underlying sectors.

 

Top 10 Non-Leveraged ETFs of 2011

 

TICKER /2011 /NAME

ZROZ 58.85 % PIMCO 25+ Yr Zero Cpn U.S. Trsy Idx ETF
EDV 56.14 % Vanguard Extended Dur Treas Idx Instl
DTYL 46.16 % iPath US Treasury 10-year Bull ETN
DLBL 42.87 % iPath US Treasury Long Bond Bull ETN
TLT 33.56 % iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond
TLO 29.4 % SPDR Barclays Capital Long Term Treasury
VGLT 29.14 % Vanguard Long-Term Govt Bond Idx Instl
FLAT 26.76 % iPath US Treasury Flattener ETN
LTPZ 25.06 % PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS Index ETF
BABS 24.02 % SPDR Nuveen Barclays Cap Build Amer Bd

 

Top 10 Leveraged ETFs of 2011

 

TICKER /2011 /NAME
LBND 117.85 % PowerShares DB 3x Lng 25+ Yr Trsy Bd ETN
TMF 109.08 % Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X Shrs
INDZ 78.72 % Direxion Daily India Bear 3X Shares
UBT 72.77 % ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury
TYD 48.45 % Direxion Daily 7-10 Yr Trsy Bull 3X Shrs
BOM 41.84 % PowerShares DB Base Metals Dble Shrt ETN
UPW 35.21 % ProShares Ultra Utilities
MLPL 31.89 % UBS E-TRACS 2x Long Alerian MLP Infr ETN
BZQ 25.83 % ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil
RXL 17.82 % ProShares Ultra Health Care

Admittedly, the non-leveraged top ETF list is pretty boring to look at – it’s all Treasuries!  But that was the story of 2011 – the flight to safety.  For a large part of 2011, it was a flight to gold as well, but as I warned in September in 5 Reasons to Avoid Gold ETFs (when gold was appreciably higher than it is now in spite of Russia, Iran, Egypt and Europe worsening), that story may well have been played out regardless of what happens in the near-term.

Disclosure: No position in any ETFs covered in this article

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When buying a home, it’s reasonable to imagine that most people consider things like finances, budgeting, location, finding a trustworthy agent, getting a mortgage, dealing with movers. All these things make up the localized tasks that are a necessary part of the process. And while obviously such things must be dealt with, I’d like to entreat us all to take a step back and consider home buying, not just for how it affects the individual, but how it impacts — and is impacted by — the rest of the world.

As an exercise, let’s consider home buying in the macro scale, not the micro. The US’s recent sub-prime crisis has caused a sea change within the financial services sector, which has directly led to a closer look at global regulation. We’ve seen governments react in different ways to the economic downturn; most have introduced austerity measures while some tried to stimulate their economy to combat deficits.

The US has applied stimulus measures, growing public works and providing cash gifts to consumers in an effort to encourage spending. Yet it’s no surprise that according to Genworth Financial’s International Mortgage Trends Report “More than half of Americans surveyed are nervous about how the economy will perform in the coming year.”

However much planning for our economic futures we try to do, there are innumerable external factors that will affect us. Because the sub-prime crisis had such a profound affect on the global economy, and because home ownership is one of the fundamental rights that humans strive for, it’s interesting to consider how people across the globe are currently venturing into the home buying market. Home ownership is not solely an American Dream. And the state of an individual’s personal finances is an overarching fear across the globe.

There are shared socio-economic trends across the world, yet there are a wide variety of environmental, economic and cultural differences that touch homebuyers locally. Homebuyer confidence is shaped by all these elements.

According to Genworth’s study, people in the US are still worried about the price of real estate falling. It’s harder and harder to buy a home. On average, the age at which a borrower is able to purchase their first home has increased from 27.3 years during the 1970s to 31.6 years in the last decade. However, it’s not all dire news. The majority of people across America are feeling that now is a good time to buy a home. Americans

also feel that private mortgage insurance helps them buy a home with a smaller down payment, allowing them to achieve their dreams even sooner.

The important thing to remember is that we we’re all in this together.

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Every few months, I’ve been repeating the same pattern of shorting out of the money leveraged ETFs on US Treasuries and keeping the premiums when the options expire.  It’s been a nice way to supplement largely flat market returns with recurring income, and in my view, without taking on an inordinate amount of risk.  Since that was a mouthful, I’ll explain.  In my latest post on the matter, I laid out the case and specific trade for shorting treasuries in September.  The key facets of that particular trade were the following:

  • Sold TMF Calls (TMF was priced at 61 at time of trade in early December)
  • Strike Price $75
  • Expiry November
  • Premium 3.40 each

Come November 21 options expiry, these option contracts expired worthless of course, so I kept the full premium.  I do these a couple at a time, so that was $640 less a $10 commission or so.  But in doing so several times per year, it’s a decent ~2K or so I can earn each year and still sustain a loss now and then should the bond markets rally (ironically) when ratings agencies downgrade US debt each time.  But I digress.  I just did it again that very same Friday when this last set expired with the following details:

Latest Trade

  • Sold TMF Calls (TMF was priced at 70 at time of trade in early December)
  • Strike Price $85
  • Expiry Feb
  • Premium 3.90 each (*2 = $780)

I anticipate with TMF now trading at only 67 (with markets rallying, long bond prices have dropped), I’m in pretty good shape on this set as well.  The bid/ask is 1.90/2.45.  Oh, that’s the other thing; the bid-ask is sometimes pretty bad on these out of the money options on exotic ETFs, so make sure to enter as a limit order to get the best price when selling!

Selling naked call options is not for the faint of heart of course. You have unlimited liability in that if Treasuries were to rally substantially enough to drive TMF up 30-40% in a week or two, you’d be well into the red (note that TMF is a triple leveraged ETF which is by design since they all go to zero to daily resets given enough time!).  How could this happen?  Basically, whenever people freak out, they flock to Treasuries.  If an overt bombing of Iran occurs (yes, they have been bombed several times this year now and they keep claiming they were “accidents”); if Europe implodes further, if there’s some other unforeseen malady that causes markets to crash, TMF will rally.  Why?  US Treasuries, as laughable as it seems, remain the safest investment in the world during times of fear, even moreso than gold, which often sells off during market crashes as well as investors liquidate everything that’s not chained down.  So, you COULD see TMF rally quickly; I just don’t lose sleep over the prospect of a move that large overnight.  My options are so far out of the money and I buy so few, that I can monitor the situation every day or two and react accordingly.  Remember, with options premiums ticking off value day by day, I’m making money for doing nothing each day :>

Here’s a screenshot for your perusal.

tmf-options(click to enlarge)

If you’re interested in doing more on the options front, you should check out Options House (review), where you can also get 100 Free trades when you open an IRA account.

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Some Thoughts on Insurance

November 28, 2011

As I set out to embark on a trip to India in December, of course, my wife’s thinking the worst while I’m just psyched to see some neat stuff outside the routine business meetings.  That being said, of course, my mind wanders to whether my family would be equipped to deal with some unforeseen event, [...]

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Would Tort Reform Really Solve Healthcare Woes?

November 16, 2011

For regular readers of this blog and others that I author, you’re aware that I’m a big proponent of personal responsibility and taking costs out of the system (government, healthcare, investment costs, whatever).  So, I’ve always been a big proponent of “tort reform” and was disappointed tremendously when Obama passed what was termed Healthcare “Reform”, [...]

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Volatility ETNs Soared Last Week…In an UP Market

November 6, 2011

Even though the S&P500 (SPY) closed the week with a respectable 2.4% gain, volatility ETNs (Exchange traded notes) showed huge gains for the week ranging from 19%-40% depending on the type of ETN.  For a bit more on how the volatility index works, the VIX is the CBOE’s market volatility index which derives its volatility [...]

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Shorting Treasuries For the Ultimate Risk-Takers

September 6, 2011

While there are numerous ways to short Treasuries, there are several different approaches investors choose to take, each suited to a particular strategy and risk tolerance.  What I’m outlining today is both high-risk and highly likely to succeed – IF I can outlast the Fed.  See, I entered into the ultimate risk short today that [...]

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5 Reasons to AVOID the Gold ETF GLD

September 26, 2011

The gold bugs have certainly been gloating of late (well, excluding the prior 2 trading sessions) seeing as how bullion prices, miners and precious metals ETFs have been holding up well while most other asset classes spiral downward in a volatility vortex.  In the short term, sure, gold has performed well and may well continue [...]

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Structured Property Investments

October 18, 2011

The following is a review of IPIN Global which can connect investors with international real estate experts. As an avid retail investor, I’m constantly on the prowl for investments with a good combination of risk, returns and low correlation with US equities since I’m so heavily tied to the whims of the US stock market [...]

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1000 Best and Worst ETFs of 2011

October 19, 2011

With 2011 coming to a close, it’s a good time to take inventory of which ETFs fared the best which may lend some insight into trends and sectors to keep an eye on going into the close of the year.  With tax-loss harvesting, asset rebalancing, and the dreaded annual returns fund managers must report following [...]

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5 tips to cope with higher energy bills this winter

October 30, 2011

The following was a guest post highlighting energy tips for the winter: Every year the cost of heating your home increases. Finding the cheapest gas and electricity is essential. The bills get higher and the winters seem colder. The slow economy does not help the situation and neither does the rising cost of oil. There [...]

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